Tuesday, October 22, 2019

You can never be China’s friend’: Spengler: Asia Times

Do the Chinese have the same concept of friendship that we have?
The Chinese, as individuals, have no friends. China, as a country, all the less so.

I think the Chinese are not curious about how the barbarians govern themselves as long as they’re subordinate to China, economically and technologically. The Chinese are the least ideological people in the world and the most pragmatic.

If China loses its edge in technology, if they fall behind the West, if the Communist Party is seen to have failed in competing with the West, I think that will be a significant threat to its power.
You can’t effect that by complaining about human rights in China. China’s violation of human rights is repugnant to us. Of course, we will complain. But that doesn’t really do anything. The Chinese only respect power, and our power is in innovation. If we show that we can out-innovate the Chinese and leave them behind in critical sectors of technology, I think that will undermine the credibility of the present government.

A lot of my American friends say the problem is the wicked Chinese Communist Party which is oppressing the good Chinese people. I think that’s complete nonsense. I see the Communist Party as simply another manifestation of the Mandarin administrative cast which has ruled China since it was unified in the third century BC.

Certainly no Augustinian sense of common love to hold a country together. What holds the country together is ambition. Therefore, it’s critical that the meritocracy be fair.
Xi Jinping’s daughter goes to Harvard, but no Chinese president can get his child into Peking University unless she gets the right score on the gaokao, the university entrance exam.

Of course, we need to worry about the Chinese. If the Chinese dominate the next wave of major industrial applications, we’ll be poor, and we’ll be less secure. We’ll be dependent on them, and I don’t like that.
I don’t think the Chinese plan to invade us or establish an American Communist Party on the model of the Chinese Communist Party.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/you-can-never-be-chinas-friend-spengler/

Monday, September 30, 2019

Lanka Land Reform and Productivity

This blog post is long reply to a good friends questions (in bold italics).

First: Productivity, Growth.  That is a concept that is used by the rentier classes to maximize profits.  Pay the least and and get the most.  How, does that benefit the avg joe.  Standard answer is cheaper goods, and you know that does not happen.  Maybe the Chinese.(See Box Below)


"in 1973 number of vehicles in Yala were less than 100,trackers were more respected, poaching was minimal, buffer zones had no settlements"

Sri Lanka population was 13.5 million. The country was poor and could not pay its debts. 
Because the price of rubber had collapsed (synthetic rubber production). Almost the whole country (including our family, I was 14) had to stay in long lines to get bread, rice.  Long means long. 4am to 6am to get 2 loaves moldy bread.  Sisters and I took turn to stay on the lines.

Who could afford to go to Yala in the 70's, the 1%.  Even in S Thomas, one of the schools of the 1%. Very few classmates went to Yala in the 70's.  Not my family for sure.  They did pre 1960.

After 2010, population is 21 million. There is peace and many people (including rural/small town) have disposable income and can do affordable trips, specially in large groups.  Yes, they will throw garbage out of the jeep, drinking and Yala and in in other vacation areas.  Sounds familiar, right, you get the same complaints about behavior of low income people in the US national parks, Beaches etc.


Yala 1950: Rippon Gall Teachers trip.
My mother Peace BeeBee, white dress on left

"land in areas not the best for successful cultivation and their usage was no better than slash & burn"
I have no idea where they do slash and burn these days.  This area where I live was one of the poorest because it was border country during the war.  People here had no option but to hunt in Wilpattu to have food on the table.  The Army and LTTE to hunted to have food.   However, when I came in 2012 there was no slash and burn.

"When Mrs, B broke up the estates down to 50 acres,how come these newly acquired land not used for land reform, productive agricultural areas?"

There was no way the hill country estates were going to be given en masse to the Estate Tamils. Racism and Political suicide. So the hill country Tea estates became  Govt/State owned, and run by either the Govt entity, Janawasama or leased to Private companies like Mackwoods.  The land is still owned by the state.

There were exceptions.  An estate in Katul Oya/Gomara, near Knuckles Range .  1/2 acre was given to the workers in lieu of pay.  Beautiful area, a small plain adjoing the Knuckles Reserve. I tried to buy 4 adjoining plots, too expensive for me. 

In the south (Deniyaya, Hiniduma etc)  many of the Tea Estates were broken up and 2 acres was given to villagers.  I personally know two families.  They make about 1-2 lakhs/month.  However, they have to do all the work themselves.  No hired labor on avg or the gains are gone.

70% of our tea comes from small holdings.

To quote from   https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---ilo-colombo/documents/publication/wcms_654641.pdf
"Of this, smallholders, often following a multi-crop model on landholdings of less than ten acres, cultivate about 60 per cent of the total tea land and account for more than 70 per cent of  the  total  production. "
"The smallholder subsector is better off than the corporate plantation sector in terms of productivity. "



"All that happen was a land grab by the competing elites, old money to new money."

Thats the the old money elite version.

Old money:  Most made their money because they had patronage of the Brits. I hope you have read "Nobodies to Somebodies",  Big money from selling alchol, legal monopoly of a drug, including the Senanayakes . Thats a story in itself.  Old money is also Land given by the Brits for brown nosing. 

Some of the old money has changed with the times and jumped on the band wagon. One thing for sure, the new money has to spread the money more to all.

"State run enterprises by politicians who lacked business acumen had no business taking over profitable enterprises!

Ha, this comes to productivity.  State run businesses are not profitable because they are over staffed.  But the pay goes to Sri Lankans, may be backside warmers. welfare in another way.  Can privatize and sell and the profits go overseas. Offshoring of US manufactiring ring a bell. (see box again)

Land Ownership and Land Reform
In the US, there are almost no small family farms left. All taken over by big agri business.  The people have moved to large cities to work in Factories.  Now that manufacturing has been offshored, the mid west rust belt has become one large meth and fentanyl fest.

In the UK, there were the Inclosure/Enclosure acts that drove the rural working class out of the countryside.  It was cheap labor for the factories of the biggest richest empire at that time.  However. Life for those in the factory cities was horrible. Read Dickens etc.
See http://www.thelandmagazine.org.uk/articles/short-history-enclosure-britain

Even today half of England is owned by less than 1% of the population.  Average Joe in the UK less than 10%. (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/apr/17/who-owns-england-thousand-secret-landowners-author)

Thank goodness in Sri Lanka we had land reform and ceilings on land ownership.  So no large migrations to cities and slums.


Arrack/Tavern renting
Legalized drug dealing monopoly enforced by the Jack boot.  Prior to the English the Sri Lankan Tamil and Sinhalese tapped their toddy drank it, shared it or sold some. Never was big or even small scale business.  Too much work for lotus eaters.

The English, passed laws that a family could keep only two bottles of tapped toddy.  The rest had to be given to the Toddy Tavern (and later distilleries) at a fixed price set by the English.  They had special police, called Excise police to enforce the laws.  The taverns were rented off to Sinhalese families, prominent among them the Senanayskes, de Soysas for example.
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/181111/plus/don-spater-senanayake-and-the-temperance-movement-319728.html


Productivity and Growth
How per Capita Income, Productivity and Growth hides rise in Inequalityand Poverty
Consider country which has only one Farm and Village of 10 people.

In the first year all 10 people work on the farm
Out per year is 10kg.  So productivity is 1kg/person.
Wages are $10/year per person. 
So per capita income is 10/year.

Next year they push people to work harder, less vacation and lay off 3 people.
Output increases to 11kg/year.  Now productivity is 1.57kg/person. (11kg/7)
Eureka, 57% Growth in Productivity

For the 7 remaining Wages are also increased to $14.5
Total wage are now $101.5 (14.5x7). 
Per capita Income is now $10.15
Eureka Per Capita Income Has gone up by 1.5%

Productivity and Growth has gone up 57%. , Wages have gone up and Per Capita income has gone up by 1.5%.
How do these upbeat stats help the three people laid off


Now lets have look at how Govt or Land owner gains
Let the price/kg be $10 and no change between years

Then in the first year
Gross income = $100 (10kg x 10)
Wages=$100 ($10x10)
Net Income=Gross Income-Wages
0= $100-$100
So, first year it is a break even

The second year
Gross Income = $110 (11kg x $11)
Wages=$101.5 (14.5x7).
Net Income=$8.5 ($110-$101.5)

Eureka the Govt/Land owner is making a Profit


As you can see Productivity, Growth, Increase in per Capita Income hide the fact the poor become poorer and the rich become richer.  This is the rise in inequality and wealth transfer from poor to the rich.




Saturday, September 21, 2019

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Repo Fundig freeze.

A set of FB posts arranged oldest to newest.  There is a thread connnecting dots

Houthi Drone/Missile attack on Saudi Arabia FB post on  2019/09/16

The oil and gas conditioning plant in Abqaiq is the largest of the world.
processes 6.8 million barrels of crude oil each day. More than two thirds of all Saudi oil and gas production runs through it.

it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy."

This attack was by a piss poor set of rebels in Yemen a 1,000km to the South. Imagine if the attack is was from the much more well armed neighbors to the East or North. Complete shutdown, the Clown Prince aint very smart.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/attacks-on-major-saudi-oil-installations-show-urgent-need-for-peace-with-yemen.html


Huge Spike in Repo Rates  FB post on  2019/09/17
Important: US Repo rates went upto 10%. Should be a few basis points above Fed Fund rates
The NY Fed has stepped in an provided funding of 75 billion and stabilized the situation. Will the Fed have to continue to do this, i.e. a QE.
The big question is what caused the spike forn 2-3% to 10%. What do some banks etc know or suspect.
Note the US Repo market is about 4 Trillion


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/64-trillion-question-what-happens-next-repo


Excerpts from a Moon of Alabama Analysis FB post on  2019/09/18

How Russian And Iran Beat Their Opponents' Strategies
Interesting Analysis. Specially in conjunction of consequences with Saudi claims of "material evidence" that Iran was responsible for Aramco bombing.

Excerpts
It (Russia) had developed a number of new weapons that can defeat the ballistic missile defense the U.S. installed. It also put emphasis on its own air and missile defense as well as on radar and on electronic countermeasures that are so good that a U.S. general described them as "eye-watering".
U.S. allies, who have to buy U.S. weapons, have followed a similar defense investment strategy as the U.S. itself. They bought weapon systems that are most useful for wars of aggression but did not invest in defensive weapon systems that are needed when their enemies prove capable of hitting back.
That is the reason why Saudi Arabia has more than 350 modern fighter planes but only relatively few medium and long range air defense systems that date back to the 1970s.

Saudi Arabia does not have short range air defenses against drones and cruise missiles because the U.S. does not have such systems. It also does not have sophisticated electronic countermeasures because the U.S. can not provide any decent ones.

Note: Saudis spend the third largest amount on defense (67 billion) after US (649 bn) and China (250 bn). Most of Saudi defense spending are purchases from the US.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/how-russian-and-iran-beat-their-opponents-strategies.html




Drone/Missile attack on Saudi and Boeing 737:  FB post on 2019/09/10

The Saudis have evidence the Drones/Missiles were of Iranian Origin*. The Saudis claim it is an act of war by Iran.
The Trump/US has two loose loose choices
a) Go to war with Iran and see Oil spike to over USD 100/barrel and huge destabilization of mid east
b) Avoid war and more sanctions. That is sure to make the Saudis think many times before they buy arms from the US. Who knows they may even pivot to Russia and buy S-400's. Many other countries will also think twice in buying multi billion dollar US weapons. India and Turkey have already pivoted to Russia.

‘Made in Iran’ is not ‘launched by Iran’. What about arms made in US/UK etc.

This whole failure of defensive aspect of US weapons has parallels to the Boeing 737 MAX fiasco. It was blamed on foreign pilots, and no culpability of Boeing's slip shod systems (The NY Times feature on 2019/09/18 is a good example)
Well folks, 90% of Boeing aircraft sales are to foreign countries. All have either put their purchases on hold or cancelled.
The FAA reputation has also taken a hit. Countries/Companies are going to wait for alternate sign off by Aviation Authorities of other countries.

=====================================
IRGC, Major General Hossein Salami FB post on 2019/09/22

Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami
"Be careful, a limited aggression will not remain limited. We will pursue any aggressor."
Bush, Obama/Hillary had the easy pickings. Iraq/Afganistan and Libya.
US/Trump is now left to deal with North Korea and Iran.
Iran keeps on pushing up the ante.

I feel sorry for Trump who contested on an anti war platform. How will he get out of this box. A real big man will make peace. Is Trump big enough or will his advisors push him to war.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-vows-major-war-even-if-us-conducts-limited-strikes


=======================================

Back to the Repo and SOFR rates.  FB post on 2019/09/22                             
To quote
"Richard Dzina, said that the New York Fed is examining "why banks with excess cash failed to lend to the overnight money market, following a week that revealed cracks in the US’s financial plumbing."

Are the banks seeing a possibility of loose loose situation and hoarding cash.
a) The US gets involved in a Saudi/Iran/Israel war
b) Even worse if the US does not step up to plate and attack Iran in support of the Saudis.
       i) The Saudis start pivoting to Russia like I said previously
        ii) Even much worse the Saudis decide the nuclear option against the US. Start selling oil in any currency or gold. The petrodollar ends, i.e. the necessity to buy USD to buy oil.
For those who dont know every single USD has to go thru a US bank and subject to inspection.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/clueless-new-york-fed-examining-why-banks-excess-cash-failed-halt-repo-panic

==============================
Tulsi Gabbard  FB post on 2019/09/22
And it’s a huge disgrace to hear our commander-in-chief basically put us in a position —the American people, our men and women in uniform, our military assets — in a position where we are servants of the Saudi kingdom. Standing by and awaiting their orders on how we should proceed.”

Specifically she had criticized the president's early remarks following the twin attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities last week, where Trump tweeted he's "waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!".

Fox (which prior to 2017 had a significant chunk of its parent company 21st Century Fox owned by Saudi investors) consistently toeing the Saudi line on everything from Syria to Yemen to Iran.

I didnt know that, i.e. Fox had significant Saudi investment itself. That is a story in itself, see comments. This is why I read ZeroHedge)

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-tulsi-gabbard-wipe-floor-well-known-war-hawk?

Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal owned 1.5 billion of Fox shares, approx 5% with voting rights.

Prince Alwaleed was "detained" at the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in Nov 2017. It was during that time period that he sold all his shares in Fox.
https://observer.com/2017/11/longtime-murdoch-ally-saudi-prince-dumps-1-5b-worth-of-fox-shares/

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Why I suuport Gota

First, my personal reasons, then the track record and finally the allegations.

My personal reasons

I was back in SL in 2010 just as the war ended. Ended up living on the border of Wilpattu.  It was also the de facto border between LTTE and Govt control.

It was desolate, no economy for the locals. Three shops, one blackened with soot tea shop (the kade) and two small grocery shops (sillara kada). The shops had very little not even Astra Margarine or ice cream.  Sri Lanka has sachet of everything in affordable price/qty eg LKR 30, margarine/ice cream. Not available because those were luxuries that the local villagers could not afford.

The road was so bad it took 1.5hrs to travel 30 kn to the nearest town. The new road started being built end of 2012.  There was a section where many bends and some huge Kumbuk trees. I was quite sure using the excuse of having a straight road, trees would be cut for benefit of  politicians. The trees were not cut except for one, nor was the road straightened (its dangerous at high speed.  Apparently, personal directive by Gota to not cut tree.  Gota was not only Secy of Defence he was also head of Urban Development Authority (UDA) and Road Development Authority (RDA).

Anyway the moment the road was finished, 2013 or so, the economy took off.  There 25 shops now in the village. People were able resume agriculture. By 2016-17 there were 7 hotels catering to local and foreign tourists visiting Wilpattu and the Kala Oya. Some hotels on the high end, eg The Backwaters at USD90+/night.

Come Easter 2019, the economy crashed. Why because the current jokers were fighting among themselves, reduced intelligence and ignored what little intelligence that remain.  The situation was so bad, Anandi Sasitharan a former LTTE ranker wanted the military to kept in Jaffna.

Economy crashed, Tourism is 20% of Sri Lankas economy with multiplier effects.  In a small village it was very noticeable, the buses to the nearby town are empty. The three wheel guys have no hires or on credit.  The tourist hotels have laid off staff.  Backwaters has cut is prices down to USD50, Full Board for two. Personally I have had no income since Easter and had to rely on meager savings and handouts.  You can imagine the curse words I use mentally on these current joker monkeys. I try to minimise using curse words.




Proven track record of the  Rajapakses.  A few among many

a) End of War. I get to live here in this small village because the war ended.
The building of roads has changed the economy for the better.

b) GDP growth 7% down to 3% and less probably for 2019

c) External debt has increased.
   Debt to GDP.  78% in 2015 and 83% in 2018.
   There have been no capital/infrastructure intensive projects to justify additional debt.

d)A clean and beautified Colombo and other cities.
  I have personally seen, the change in Kilinochi and Jaffna.
  Seen the photos of Batticoloa
  The clean up of Pettah and Private bus stand with floating market benefits the average person. It has become dirty of late.

e) The Southern Expressway.  Four years and the current jokers cant finish the 5 km  joining the Katunayake Expressway to the Southern Expressway (Kerawalapitiya to Kadawatha). 
When the Expressways were being built the usual litany of complaints. It will only be for the rich, wont be able to pay for itself, corruption the works. I travel by bus and there are not enough buses to serve the average joe who takes a Expressway bus.  The lines are long and have to wait for 2-3 buses to get a seat. LKR 150 to travel from Negombo to Colombo. LKR 500 to travel from Kadawatha to Galle.


Now for some of the allegations, easy to difficult

a) Lamborghinis apparently bought by Namal Rajapakse. 
   That was an election allegation and a promise to find them.
   That should have been easy,  Lamborghinis would be hard to hide.

b)  Mangala Samaraweera said the Rajapakses had stolen USD 18 billion and that money would be recovered.
    USD 18 billion is huge chunk of SL economy.
    If that amount had been stolen our economy would have crashed. 
    Compare the numbers
    Gross External Debt USD$50 billion (2015),
    Revenues  USD 12 billion (2015).

    The fashion designer, Mangala Samaraweera who made that allegation, is now the Finance Minister. 

c) After commiting various numbers of heinous acts. Crimes against humanity.
    There have been 4 years to prove these allegations.
    Each person has a different version of were heinous acts and the crimes aginst humanity.
    Plus, Gota was a US citizen so could have been extradited till a few monthsago.
   Allegations of crimes were never specifically pointed out, and hence could not pursued.
   
  

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Jeffrey Epstein: Will justice be served




https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/epstein%201a.jpg?itok=fWzuC5etThere is accumulating circumstantial evidence that Epstein's millions are from some other source, likely a country. No, its not Russia, its the country that has been caught many times spying in the US.


The fund that Epstein runs does not generate the income that funds the lavish lifestyle. Blackmail in itself too cannot generate Epstein's income. Is Epstein selling/getting paid by another country for influence peddling and state secrets obtained thru blackmailing his high profile friends.

Will justice be served and all those connected exposed. I doubt it, the rot goes too high up the political food chain. It is a good possibility that Epstein may conveniently have an heart attack or commit "suicide". A war with Iran could also distract public attention from this high profile case. That would kill two birds with one stone, for the suspect country that is paying Epstein millions.

Steel yourself for the possibility that justice will not be served.

It is a conspiracy theory.
Can check in 6 months if the conspiracy theory held any water.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-12/epstein-has-secret-steel-safe-limits-room-pedo-island

==========================================

There was very much lower profile case which got hushed up.
The case of Debbie Wasserman Schultz and her IT aide Imran Awan.
Basic story
Imran Awan and brother were IT aides to Debbie Wasserman Schultz and many other Congress Democrats.
Image result for Wasserman Schultz imran
There was theft of computers, possible espionage, Congress members data and emails stolen, 40 or more Democratic members of Congress.
Debbie Wasserman went crazy trying to protect the Awan brother.

Slap on the wrist and time served was the punishment.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/jenna-lifhits/the-strange-case-of-debbie-wasserman-schulzs-it-guy

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Trump, Iran, Gold and Financial Crash

A couple of FB post in one place predicting if there is a war with Iran

a) Gold will sky rocket USD 1,700/oz and above is a high probability (USD 1,400 on June 20)
b) Will Trigger a Financial Crash bigger than the 2008 because
  • Possibility of  Oil pushing USD 100- USD 150
    That will trigger trillions in derivatives and the dominoes fall
Gold Price as of June 25 2019 (usd/oz price is on right axis)
c) Saudi Arabia will fall apart, like Libya. Recall what happened to Kuwait.  Luckily Bush senior saved absorption of Kuwait into Iraq.


Probability  of war is high. On the negative side Trump would prefer war after 2020 Election.  However, he is out weighed by War Hawks, Bolton, Pompeo, Kushner, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold Prediction (June 20)
A little late, but low downside risk and high upside to buying gold.
Upside of Gold at USD1,700/oz and above is reasonable upside in my opinion.

I* have been saying since 2009 there will be another Financial crash and to buy gold. 10 years later it has not happened. The Central banks and the US Fed have managed to keep on kicking the can down the road.
It is a good possibility the Central Banks have reached the end of the road. The potential of war with Iran and US-China trade conflict maybe the big nail on the coffin for an financial crash.
Iran has said if sanctions wont allow Iran to export oil, no one will get oil from the mid-east. i.e. they will shut down the Straits of Hormuz. I dont think Iran is bluffing.
For war to be avoided, Trump will have to provide concessions to Iran. Concessions like permitting Iran to export oil to China and India . Maybe it can be done in a face saving way for the US, without appearing to look weak.

* Not really, I. More like Satyajit Das and Raghuram Rajan (both who predicted the 2008 crash early as 2005). For me that why I read ZeroHedge.
.
-------------------------------------------------------

An analysis on Iran and US sanctions (21st June)
Trump may well want some diplomatic exchange with Iran. But Iran will not talk to him as long as the sanctions against it are kept in place. It will continue its maximum pressure campaign by creating new incidents that will again increase the price of oil. The easiest way out for Trump is to abolish sanctions against Iran. He at least should issue waivers for China and others to allow them to again buy Iranian oil.

Unless he does so Iran will hit again and again against those who press for war against it. Yesterday it was a U.S. drone and a Saudi desalination plant that were the targets. The next incident could be in some oil facility in the United Arab Emirates or a symbolic strike against Israel.
The ball is still in Trump's court. He has to act further to avoid a larger war.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/white-house-pushes-trump-pulled-back-story-he-likely-never-approved-to-strike-iran.html?

--------------------------------------------------------------
Sanctions need to End for probability of War to become Less (June 24)

Trump: “I have some hawks. John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him he'd take on the whole world at one time.“
Trump: I was against going into Iraq... I was against going into the Middle East. Chuck we've spent 7 trillion dollars in the Middle East right now

So will Trump avoid a war with weapons with Iran. Unhappily Trump does not realize crippling starvation sanctions are war by another means. Unlike Venezuela, Iran has a Trump card, shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
Just the direct statement from Iran saying it will bomb/attack any tankers passing thru the Straits will shut it down. It gets shut down because Insurance companies will refuse to insure vessels going thru the straits.

Repeat, Trump needs to end sanctions against Iran. At the least allow the sale of oil to some countries like China. Otherwise war with Iran is still in play

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-23/trump-unleashes-uber-hawk-bolton-he-would-take-whole-world-one-time

Monday, June 17, 2019

Huawei and the shift to the East


I have been out of touch with tech for over 8 years, being in the boondocks, so please chip in.  If necessary will do updates to post from comments. (also here at Brown Pundits for comments)
———————————————————————————
Trumps plans are pushing and hastening countries to be less dependent, even independent of US products.  The Huawei ban seems to be game changer.



So  excerpts from an article linked below plus  links other info.
Huawei, needs a new operating system (Mobile OS/Operating System) for its phones. There are few out there, almost all are based on  Linux as is Android.

Android was Initially developed by Android Inc and Google bought in 2005.

Aurora
Aurora is a mobile operating system currently developed by Russian Open Mobile Platform, based in Moscow. It is based on the Sailfish operating system, designed by Finnish technology company Jolla (for its smart phone), which featured a batch of Russians in the development team. Quite a few top coders at Google and Apple also come from the former USSR – exponents of a brilliant scientific academy tradition.
HongMeng also called Ark OS:  Huawei’s own operating system, apparently Android App compatible (hmm, i will believe when I see it).
No Google? Who cares?Tencent, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo are already testing the HongMeng operating system, as part of a batch of one million devices already distributed. are not (yet) banned in the US market, and combined they sell more than Samsung. They could decide to move to Huawei’s operating system in no time.
The HongMeng system may also harbor functions dedicated to security and protection of users’ data. That’s what’s scaring Google the most; Huawei developing a software impenetrable to hacking attempts. Google is actively lobbying the Trump administration to add another reprieve – or even abandon the Huawei ban altogether.
The next step for Huawei and other producers is to go for Made in China processing and memory chips, breaking the stranglehold by Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Western Digital and the British ARM.
Final thought.  What happens to India and its role in Mobile phones and Mobile OS’s.  India was not a player in hardware such phone or computers  Indirectly India’s software developers gained thru large software companies such as Google. Now it is possible some significant fraction of hardware and OS is shifting to China.

Italics from:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-15/huaweis-plan-b-meet-russia-china-os

Also read
https://www.cnet.com/news/huawei-files-trademark-for-hongmeng-os-while-objecting-to-us-ban-reports-say/