Saudi Arabia, Iran and Repo Fundig freeze.

A set of FB posts arranged oldest to newest.  There is a thread connnecting dots

Houthi Drone/Missile attack on Saudi Arabia FB post on  2019/09/16

The oil and gas conditioning plant in Abqaiq is the largest of the world.
processes 6.8 million barrels of crude oil each day. More than two thirds of all Saudi oil and gas production runs through it.

it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy."

This attack was by a piss poor set of rebels in Yemen a 1,000km to the South. Imagine if the attack is was from the much more well armed neighbors to the East or North. Complete shutdown, the Clown Prince aint very smart.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/attacks-on-major-saudi-oil-installations-show-urgent-need-for-peace-with-yemen.html


Huge Spike in Repo Rates  FB post on  2019/09/17

Important: US Repo rates went upto 10%. Should be a few basis points above Fed Fund rates
The NY Fed has stepped in an provided funding of 75 billion and stabilized the situation. Will the Fed have to continue to do this, i.e. a QE.
The big question is what caused the spike forn 2-3% to 10%. What do some banks etc know or suspect.
Note the US Repo market is about 4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/64-trillion-question-what-happens-next-repo


Excerpts from a Moon of Alabama Analysis FB post on  2019/09/18

How Russian And Iran Beat Their Opponents' Strategies
Interesting Analysis. Specially in conjunction of consequences with Saudi claims of "material evidence" that Iran was responsible for Aramco bombing.

Excerpts
It (Russia) had developed a number of new weapons that can defeat the ballistic missile defense the U.S. installed. It also put emphasis on its own air and missile defense as well as on radar and on electronic countermeasures that are so good that a U.S. general described them as "eye-watering".

U.S. allies, who have to buy U.S. weapons, have followed a similar defense investment strategy as the U.S. itself. They bought weapon systems that are most useful for wars of aggression but did not invest in defensive weapon systems that are needed when their enemies prove capable of hitting back.
That is the reason why Saudi Arabia has more than 350 modern fighter planes but only relatively few medium and long range air defense systems that date back to the 1970s.

Saudi Arabia does not have short range air defenses against drones and cruise missiles because the U.S. does not have such systems. It also does not have sophisticated electronic countermeasures because the U.S. can not provide any decent ones.

Note: Saudis spend the third largest amount on defense (67 billion) after US (649 bn) and China (250 bn). Most of Saudi defense spending are purchases from the US.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/how-russian-and-iran-beat-their-opponents-strategies.html




Drone/Missile attack on Saudi and Boeing 737:  FB post on 2019/09/10

The Saudis have evidence the Drones/Missiles were of Iranian Origin*. The Saudis claim it is an act of war by Iran.
The Trump/US has two loose loose choices
a) Go to war with Iran and see Oil spike to over USD 100/barrel and huge destabilization of mid east

b) Avoid war and more sanctions. That is sure to make the Saudis think many times before they buy arms from the US. Who knows they may even pivot to Russia and buy S-400's. Many other countries will also think twice in buying multi billion dollar US weapons. India and Turkey have already pivoted to Russia.

‘Made in Iran’ is not ‘launched by Iran’. What about arms made in US/UK etc.

This whole failure of defensive aspect of US weapons has parallels to the Boeing 737 MAX fiasco. It was blamed on foreign pilots, and no culpability of Boeing's slip shod systems (The NY Times feature on 2019/09/18 is a good example)
Well folks, 90% of Boeing aircraft sales are to foreign countries. All have either put their purchases on hold or cancelled.
The FAA reputation has also taken a hit. Countries/Companies are going to wait for alternate sign off by Aviation Authorities of other countries.

=====================================
IRGC, Major General Hossein Salami FB post on 2019/09/22

Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami
"Be careful, a limited aggression will not remain limited. We will pursue any aggressor."
Bush, Obama/Hillary had the easy pickings. Iraq/Afganistan and Libya.

US/Trump is now left to deal with North Korea and Iran.
Iran keeps on pushing up the ante.

I feel sorry for Trump who contested on an anti war platform. How will he get out of this box. A real big man will make peace. Is Trump big enough or will his advisors push him to war.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-vows-major-war-even-if-us-conducts-limited-strikes


=======================================

Back to the Repo and SOFR rates.  FB post on 2019/09/22                             
To quote
"Richard Dzina, said that the New York Fed is examining "why banks with excess cash failed to lend to the overnight money market, following a week that revealed cracks in the US’s financial plumbing."

Are the banks seeing a possibility of loose loose situation and hoarding cash.
a) The US gets involved in a Saudi/Iran/Israel war
b) Even worse if the US does not step up to plate and attack Iran in support of the Saudis.
       i) The Saudis start pivoting to Russia like I said previously
        ii) Even much worse the Saudis decide the nuclear option against the US. Start selling oil in any currency or gold. The petrodollar ends, i.e. the necessity to buy USD to buy oil.
For those who dont know every single USD has to go thru a US bank and subject to inspection.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/clueless-new-york-fed-examining-why-banks-excess-cash-failed-halt-repo-panic

==============================
Tulsi Gabbard  FB post on 2019/09/22
And it’s a huge disgrace to hear our commander-in-chief basically put us in a position —the American people, our men and women in uniform, our military assets — in a position where we are servants of the Saudi kingdom. Standing by and awaiting their orders on how we should proceed.”

Specifically she had criticized the president's early remarks following the twin attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities last week, where Trump tweeted he's "waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!".

Fox (which prior to 2017 had a significant chunk of its parent company 21st Century Fox owned by Saudi investors) consistently toeing the Saudi line on everything from Syria to Yemen to Iran.

I didnt know that, i.e. Fox had significant Saudi investment itself. That is a story in itself, see comments. This is why I read ZeroHedge)

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-tulsi-gabbard-wipe-floor-well-known-war-hawk?

Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal owned 1.5 billion of Fox shares, approx 5% with voting rights.

Prince Alwaleed was "detained" at the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in Nov 2017. It was during that time period that he sold all his shares in Fox.
https://observer.com/2017/11/longtime-murdoch-ally-saudi-prince-dumps-1-5b-worth-of-fox-shares/

Racist Trump kicking a Black family from House

Trump really is the menace we have all been warned about. Not only is Trump kicking a black family out of its longtime limewashed home, he also ends U.S. government support for the disenfranchised Jihadis in Syria and elsewhere. This even months before taking office.







Without comment

Trump maybe a jerk that makes sexist comments. However, he has not been proven or settled rape charges, or defended rapists.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3922140/Death-dynasty-rotten-core-40-years-sex-lies-scandals-Clintons-leave-public-life-beset-crushing-humiliation.html?

A Trump Win

Very high possibility of a Trump win, regardless of  the polls.  Trump winning the US elections will be a repudiation of globalism (the Anglo-Saxon version, the new version being the Silk Road).

Whether he can deliver on his promises is different, e.g.
a) Protectionism. No trade agreements that will shift US jobs to another country.

  (e.g. 35% tax on cars built in Mexico by US companies)

b) Stop being world policeman

c) Is going to check antecedents/history of potential immigrants

I think even the Latino vote is going to surprise on the upside for Trump.

Do you think Hill country Tamils (forget about Jaffna Tamils) will vote for increased immigration from India. Same dynamics for Latino US citizens.

On the other hand Hillary  Clinton (and Obama)
a) Responsible for mayhem in Libya and Syria
   When Gaddafi was killed Hillary said we came. we saw and he died and then did a cackle laugh

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgcd1ghag5

Clinton corruption to long to list
;http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-31/hacked-podesta-email-reveals-clinton-foundation-coercing-saudi-billionaire-millions-

Obama (the nobel peace prize) winner has been responsible for escalating wars (Bush's) and killing people with drones.

Capitalism, Labor and the proposed Indo Lanka ECTA

Excerpts from a comment by Kieth on Income Inequality

Feudalism – exploit the masses through land ownership
Capitalism – exploit the masses through wealth (Capital)

Today this is done through the parasitic, rentier trickle up of Capitalism:

a) Those with excess capital invest it and collect interest and rent.
b) Those with insufficient capital borrow money and pay interest and rent.

All this was much easier to see in Capitalism's earlier days.

Malthus and Ricardo never saw those at the bottom rising out of a bare subsistence living.

This was the way it had always been and always would be, the benefits of the system only accrue to those at the top.

It was very obvious to Adam Smith:

The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money. But every savage has the full fruits of his own labours; there are no landlords, no usurers and no tax gatherers.

I think Sri Lanka, being rural and an agricultural economy (and specially after Land Reform) has been spared much of the extraction of labor by the capitalist class. Under the British the Sinhalese refused to work on the Plantations because they were self sufficient with their own land and crops.

The proposed Indo Lanka ECTA is the new version of Brits import of Indentured workers for the Plantations. We will end up with cheap Labor.

The most appropriate comparison (from recent history) to ECTA would be the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on US employment and industry. Both employment and industry went south Figuratively and literally. Good for big business bad for the people of the US.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). was signed in 1994, 17 years later, 682,900 U.S. jobs have been “lost or displaced” because of the agreement and the resulting trade deficit. In 1993, before the signing of NAFTA, the U.S. held a $1.6 billion trade surplus over Mexico. By 1997, the tides had turned, and Mexico laid claim to a much larger surplus of $16.6 billion. As of 2010, it’s not even close. Mexico’s trade surplus now hovers around $97.2 billion

The take home is that the poorer country gains. In the case of ECTA, India is by far the poorer based on GDP/capita. Also population wise this is not an agreement between equals. The whole of Sri Lanka is smaller than an Indian city. If the US is getting Mexicanized what would happen to little Sri Lanka.

Obviously Indian labor is cheaper. What is not that well known is they have shortages of water and will attempt to take over water resources.  One method may be privatization of water and another by establishing water hungry industry on the cheap. See how establishment of an Indian fruit juice company Dabur has severely depleted water resources to the detriment of locals.  

Back to NAFTA. One may well ask why the US agreed to NAFTA, who gained. Big Business Multi nationals. They moved their manufacturing to Mexico and gained by cheap labor and taxes. It was really a transfer of wealth from the average Joe to the rich in the US. Rentier extraction of Labor.

Panama Papers: Most listed are Politicians

The most listed occupation in Panama Papers is Politician. One thing is very clear, as officials are hypocritically denouncing the strategies they practice themselves.

I dont agree with much of the referencing article, but link given below

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-22/guess-what-occupation-most-frequently-cited-panama-papers

Arjunan Mahendran and Central Bank Bond Scam Loss Costs LKR 42.5 Billion

The whole Arjuna Mahendran Central Bank Fiasco ( also called the Bond Scam of Sri Lanka) explained very simply.

At end some explanation of the Greek Bond "losses" that Harsha de Silva was talking about.

Also note that Harsha de Silva on Central Bank Losses "UNP through the documentation Deputy Minister Harsha de Silva has received, prove its case that its man Arjuna Mahendran is not to blame.” (Link here)

Bottom line one is a minimum of LKR 12.5 billion lost to the country.
Bottom Line two, no law has been broken. The beauty of high finance white collar crime.

Update: Apparently the losses are on  many bond and T-Bill issues (see note below).   The estimate is a whopping LKR 42.5 billion loss by T-Bills and T-Bonds over 5 weeks.   This post looked at just one deal.

The Numbers:

1. 1 billion was needed to roll over expiring bonds.
2. Expected Interest Rate was 9.5%
3. Instead 10 billion was accepted at Interest Rate of 11.75% for 30 years.
4. Expected Interest Rate in 5 years 6.75%
   (As of 2015/4/26 Bond Yields Thai 2.5% and Vietnam 6.37% and Greek 12.7% )

In a country where economy is growing or is stable, it is expected that interest rates for borrowing will keep dropping. Specially in a world where negative interest rates are in play.

Any one with basic financial knowledge then does not borrow on long term. You issue short term bonds say for 5 years and then roll over. i.e Do a new issue of Bonds/Treasuries at a lower interest rate.

So what are the problems.

• LKR 10 billion Bonds/Treasuries issued when only LKR 1 billion needed.
• High Rate of Interest (11.75% when it could have been 6.75% (or less) in 5 years 
  Note, Thai (2.5%) and Vietnam (6.37) Bond yields are far lower as of 2015/4/26.
• 30 year issue, when a 5 year issue should have been made.
• We are paying close to Greek Bond yields of 12.7% , which Harsha de Silva called Greek Junk Bonds.

That means Sri Lanka will be over paying LKR 12.5 billion over the next 25 years.  (10 billion * 5% * 25 = 12.5)   

Greek Bond Losses

I wish Harsha De Silva would explain the above numbers of the Bond Issue and compare them his quote on LKR 2 billion (USD 15 billion) loss on purchase of Greek Bonds.

Basically the Central Bank bought Greek Bonds, probably because they are paying high interest rates.  Its basically a hedge, risky though. i.e. Use some of the money that we have borrowed and invest in higher interest paying bonds. The CB gets to keep the difference.

Because there are issues of whether the EU will bailout Greece, the Effective Interest Rate (Yield) has Increased on Greek Sovereign Debt (Treasuries/Bonds).  i.e the Value of the Bonds has decreased.

Unless the Greek Bonds/Treasuries are sold or used as collateral it is just a book value loss. 
That is until if and when the Greek Govt defaults on its interest payments.   Only one other country has done that so far, Argentina but does not mean Greece would not do it too. 

So as yet we have not had tangible loss on the Greek Bonds.

Note: If book Value of Bonds/Treasuries was a big deal, then Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc would be bankrupt.  Thats because their Tier 3 capital, mainly Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Asset  Backed Securities (ABS) are probably worth less than 50 cents on the Dollar.  However after 2008 Financial Collapse have relaxed accounting rules/requirements (FASB and Basel) and allowed Tier 3 capital to be valued at Par, i.e. original purchase price.

Note:  Treasurys are less than one year, sold at discount. The interest is effectively the difference between the full value you get at at end and the discount price. Notes are 2-10 year maturity issues. Bonds are over 10 years.  Both Notes and Bonds pay interest semi annually.

Clinton Foundation Donations over 50K: Sri Lanka 0.7m, Ukraine 10.0m

Sri Lankans  donated  LKR 910 lakhs (USD 0.7m) to the Clinton Foundation.
Note these would be Sri Lankan nationals, not US Citizens of Sri Lankan Origin.

Wonder who did the donating and what they got back in return.

Ukranians donated USD 10.0m

Please note this is not corrupt buying of favors.
Its all perfectly legal.

And thats the beauty of the west, corruption is codified into law.


Clinton Foundation’s Deep Financial Ties to Ukrainian Oligarch Revealed

Also read
The Best "Democracy" Money Can Buy: For Every Dollar Spent Influencing US Politics, Corporations Get $760 Back"

Who was worse JR or MR

I am a Sri Lankan and part Tamil.  One who did not even bother getting a green card after living and working for  22 years in the US (Student Visa and 3 H1B Visas).

Everyone else conveniently has forgotten JR Jayawardena the architect of the 1978 Executive Presidency.

I have not forgotten.

JR The one who after the 1983 riots said in Daily Telegraph," Really if I starve the Tamils out, the Sinhala people will be happy.

There has been nothing worse than the 83 riots in Sri Lankas modern history. It was state sponsored and the goons had a list of tamil houses. They came to our house and it was the "singhe" ending and my sisters and mothers fluent Sinhalese and light skin that spared us.

You could not travel around the country, if you had a tamil name (I have a very tamil middle name) you were harassed at every check point.

My mother and father were traditionally UNP ers except for once my mother voted for Mrs Bandaranayake.  Woman support.

My mother and sisters still support Mahinda Rajapakse because of the peace he brought to the country.  And we dont have even a remote connection to the Rajapakse corriodors.

Even at lesser level we can keep our windows and doors open because there are almost no drug addicts (kudu karayas) ready to steal the smallest thing,

On the ethnic question, Jayewardene's legacy is bitterly divisive. When he took office, ethnic tensions were present but the country as a whole was at peace. By the end of his tenure, Sri Lanka was facing not one but two civil wars, both featuring unprecedented levels of violence and brutality.

MR has done nothing even close and the country is at peace.

Though Jayewardene indeed did not take measures to stop the attack on Tamils, he was not opposed to them personally, only politically. One of his most esteemed friends was a supreme court judge of Tamil ethnicity, a member of an elite family and raised in Colombo, but who was strongly linked to his Jaffna Tamil heritage. This is but one close Tamil friend of the president's, and it is quite clear that he was not a racist but rather a man who knew how to exploit racism to win the majority.

Jayewardene moved to crack down on the growing activity of Tamil militant groups. He passed the Prevention of Terrorism Act in 1979, giving police sweeping powers of arrest and detention. This only escalated the ethnic tensions. Jayewardene claimed he needed overwhelming power to deal with the militants. He had likely SLFP presidential nominee Sirimavo Bandaranaike stripped of her civic rights and barred from running for office for six years, based her decision in 1976 to extend the life of parliament. This ensured that the SLFP would be unable to field a strong candidate against him in
the 1982 election, leaving his path to victory clear. This election was held under the 3rd amendment to the constitution which empowered the president to hold a Presidential Election anytime after the expiration of 4 years of his first term.

Landowners to be evicted to make way for Chinese Investment project

Landowners to be evicted  to make way for Chinese Investment project.  No, this not a story from Sri Lanka.  This is from the "land of the free".

In this case it is Senator Harry Reid's (the Senate Majority Leader) son who has been negotiating with Chinese Investors to locate a Solar Energy project on ranch land.  Federal Agents stormed Cliven Bundy's land, began rounding up his cattle, arrested one of his sons and Tasered another, and allegedly shoved his sister—a cancer survivor—to the ground.

As news of the “Old West-style showdown” spread last week, armed militia members and self-proclaimed patriot types began streaming onto the ranch, escalating tensions and stoking fears that the situation might unspool into another Waco or Ruby Ridge.

On Saturday, federal forces retreated and claimed it was for the sake of public safety, although they vowed to pursue their case against Bundy.

It was suggested that their retreat may have been linked to embarrassing revelations that Nevada Senator Harry Reid and his son had been negotiating with Chinese investors to use that part of the desert for a solar-energy project

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-china-reid-solar-idUSBRE87U06D20120831








http://takimag.com/article/the_vanishing_yokel_jim_goad

UK Morals: No sanctions because of Russian Money in London.

Many here in Sri Lanka happen to think that the West is more moral and less corrupt than Sri Lanka.  Yes, they appear to be moralistic with us poor folk in Asia and Africa. Thats because the money involved is peanuts and we are/were dependent on handouts.  No different from the upper class in Sri Lanka who used to screw the female help and throw them out when they became pregnant.  I am sure everyone knows of such family secrets. On the other hand the same upper class would deplore the "loose morals" of the poor.

Now we find that Germany and the UK are not willing to sanction Russia on its invasion into Crimea, because it will hurt their monetary interests.

Excerpts

one country that has the most to lose from Russian sanctions, Germany, and specifically its industrial superlobby has already said "Nein" to any truly crippling trade blockade of Moscow would backfire on Germany's own economy and bottom line.

The White House has imposed visa restrictions on some Russian officials, and President Obama has issued an executive order enabling further sanctions. But Britain has already undermined any unified action by putting profit first.

It boils down to this: Britain is ready to betray the United States to protect the City of London’s hold on dirty Russian money. And forget about Ukraine.

Britain, open for business, no longer has a “mission.” Any moralizing remnant of the British Empire is gone; it has turned back to the pirate England of Sir Walter Raleigh. Britain’s ruling class has decayed to the point where its first priority is protecting its cut of Russian money — even as Russian armored personnel carriers rumble around the streets of Sevastopol. But the establishment understands that, in the 21st century, what matters are banks, not tanks.

The Russians also understand this. They know that London is a center of Russian corruption, that their loot plunges into Britain’s empire of tax havens — from Gibraltar to Jersey, from the Cayman Islands to the British Virgin Islands — on which the sun never sets.

British residency is up for sale. “Investor visas” can be purchased, starting at £1 million ($1.6 million). London lawyers in the Commercial Court now get 60 percent of their work from Russian and Eastern European clients. More than 50 Russia-based companies swell the trade at London’s Stock Exchange. The planning regulations have been scrapped, and along the Thames, up go spires of steel and glass for the hedge-funding class.

Britain’s bright young things now become consultants, art dealers, private banker and hedge funders. Or, to put it another way, the oligarchs’ valets.

Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, gets it: you pay them, you own them. Mr. Putin was absolutely certain that Britain’s managers — shuttling through the revolving door between cabinet posts and financial boards — would never give up their fees and commissions from the oligarchs’ billions. He was right.

The Shard encapsulates the new hierarchy of the city. On the top floors, “ultra high net worth individuals” entertain escorts in luxury apartments. By day, on floors below, investment bankers trade incomprehensible derivatives.

Come nightfall, the elevators are full of African cleaners, paid next to nothing and treated as nonexistent. The acres of glass windows are scrubbed by Polish laborers, who sleep four to a room in bedsit slums. And near the Shard are the immigrants from Lithuania and Romania, who broke their backs on construction sites, but are now destitute and whiling away their hours along the banks of the Thames.

The Shard is London, a symbol of a city where oligarchs are celebrated and migrants are exploited but that pretends to be a multicultural utopia. Here, in their capital city, the English are no longer calling the shots. They are hirelings.
The Shard encapsulates the new hierarchy of the city. On the top floors, “ultra high net worth individuals” entertain escorts in luxury apartments. By day, on floors below, investment bankers trade incomprehensible derivatives.

Come nightfall, the elevators are full of African cleaners, paid next to nothing and treated as nonexistent. The acres of glass windows are scrubbed by Polish laborers, who sleep four to a room in bedsit slums. And near the Shard are the immigrants from Lithuania and Romania, who broke their backs on construction sites, but are now destitute and whiling away their hours along the banks of the Thames.

The Shard is London, a symbol of a city where oligarchs are celebrated and migrants are exploited but that pretends to be a multicultural utopia. Here, in their capital city, the English are no longer calling the shots. They are hirelings.

From:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/why-london-too-will-balk-sanctions-against-russia-and-putin-knows-it

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?_r=2 

Also Read
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/03/yanis-varoufakis-ukraine-three-awkward-questions-western-liberals-comment-eus-role.html 

Addendum

A comment: Well, I do not believe that a few thugs will produce a grassroots uprising but that there is a real dissatisfaction in the population towards the corruption of the government. It represents a worldwide trend that questions increasingly the decision makers who are not really responsible (immunity) but ensure a comfortable lifestyle for themselves while the rest of the people are increasingly struggling. We see corruption left and right and the increasing concentration of power has to reverse so that decisions are again made on the lowest possible level of the hierarchy.

Contrary to the commenter,  I think the last 50 years or so of history was an aberration, where the poulace had a say in the politics of their country.   The oligarchs and industrialists initially did not know how to respond and keep control of the general populace.   Now oligarchs and industrialist Worldwide have figured out mechanisms to grab control into their hands.  Using laws and loopholes in laws which they "sell" to the general population as in for their own good power is consolidated in a few as in most of history.

Subaskaran Allirajah: Conservative Party Funder

Apparently news.lk reports that Subaskaran Allirajah is the one who is funding the British Conservative Party and points out that the Subaskaran gave 420,000 Sterling Pounds to the Conservative Party as one time donation.  It says that he has given over 20 million to Prince Charles Foundation as well.

David Cameroon’s visit to Jaffna and his statements against the Sri Lankan government were made on the behest of Subaskaran.  It points out Cameroon’s Jaffna visit was facilitated by Ganam Foundation established by Subaskaran in Jaffna to steer their Anti-Sri Lankan Government activities.

Who is Subaskaran Allirajah.  According to the wiki Subaskaran Allirajah (born 2 March 1972) is the Group Founder and Chairman of the Lycatel and LycaMobile Groups of companies. It also says his mother language is Sinhala (that has got my head scrtching).

Lycamobile is an international mobile virtual network operator (MVNO). To quote uk.finance.yahoo.com

MVNOs offer consumers cheap calls using pay-as-you go mobile Sim cards. Calls between Lycamobiles are free while calling UK landlines costs 5p a minute and other mobile networks 10p a minute.

But the real savings come when calling abroad. For that reason the firm’s marketing is aimed at ethnic minorities with families and friends in their home country. You’ve probably seen Lycamobile advertising on the high street – it offers calls from 1p a minute from the UK to destinations such as India, China and Nigeria under the slogan “Call the world for less.”

Tax Avoidance and Donations to Conservative Party

But despite being popular with migrants looking to call home, Lycamobile’s hit the headlines for the wrong reasons. It’s come under attack both for its tax arrangements and its links to the Conservative party. Despite a £120million turnover a year, Lycamobile hasn’t paid corporation tax in the UK since 2007 and doesn’t expect to for at least another year.

Tax is only payable on company profits – and Lycamobile has not reported a profit on its UK operation. Michael Landau, Lycamobile's chief financial officer, said the firm ploughs its profits back into the business.

Lycamobile's tax arrangements have drawn criticism from politicians. Labour MP Paul Flynn described the situation as “outrageous”. To make matters worse, Lycamobile is a big Tory donor; it’s donated more than £420,000 to the Conservatives since 2011.

Margaret Hodge MP and chair of the Public Accounts Committee, has criticised both the Government and Lycamobile for the arrangement.

"No political party should accept donations from a company that avoids paying its fair contribution to the common good,” she told the Huffington Post, “The Government loses credibility if it says it condemns tax avoidance and then accepts money from obvious offenders."

Pipelineistan: Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Qatar (Afghanistan ?)

Ever wondered if there was more than met the eye with all the events in the Middle East.  Here is an article

Reason for the longest war in American history

that makes you think. Next you wonder if the Hambantota Harbor is a reason for some of the foreign power efforts to destabilize Sri Lanka.

Construction is nearing completion on a natural gas pipeline linking Iran and Pakistan, a project that portends a huge geopolitical shift. As regional powers strengthen ties in this key energy market, they're looking to China, and away from the West.

This – among other developments – is what it’s all about, the conclusion of the final stretch of the $7.5 billion, 1,100-mile natural gas Iran-Pakistan (IP) pipeline, starting from Iran’s giant South Pars field in the Persian Gulf, and expected to be online by the end of 2014.

IP, as a key umbilical (steel) cord, makes a mockery of the artificial – US-encouraged – Sunni-Shia divide. Tehran needs the windfall, and the enhanced influence in South Asia. Ahmadinejad even cracked that “with natural gas, you cannot make atomic bombs.”

Islamabad decided not only to hand over operational control of the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar, in ultra-sensitive southwest Balochistan, to China; crucially, Islamabad and Beijing also signed a deal to build a $4 billion, 400,000 barrels-a-day oil refinery, the largest in Pakistan.
Gwadar, a deepwater port, was built by China, but until recently, the port's administration was Singaporean.

The long-term Chinese master plan is a beauty. The next step after the oil refinery would be to lay out an oil pipeline from Gwadar to Xinjiang, parallel to the Karakoram highway, thus configuring Gwadar as a key Pipelineistan node distributing Persian Gulf oil and gas to Western China – and finally escaping Beijing’s Hormuz dilemma.

Gwadar, strategically located at the confluence of Southwest and South Asia, with Central Asia not that far, is bound to finally emerge as an oil and gas hub and petrochemical center – with Pakistan as a crucial energy corridor linking Iran with China. All that, of course, assuming that the CIA does not set Balochistan on fire.

The Syrian Pipelineistan angle

This graphic Iranian success in South Asia contrasts with its predicament in Southwest Asia.
The South Pars gas fields –  the largest in the world – are shared by Iran and Qatar. Tehran and Doha have developed an extremely tricky relationship, mixing cooperation and hardcore competition.
The key (unstated) reason for Qatar to be so obsessed by regime change in Syria is to kill the $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, which was agreed upon in July 2011. The same applies to Turkey, because this pipeline would bypass Ankara, which always bills itself as the key energy crossroads between East and West.

More at
http://rt.com/op-edge/iran-pakistan-syria-pipeline-843/

Via
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-12/us-backed-syrian-rebel-commander-chased-out-country-al-qaeda

Mandela: South Africal Low Life Expectancy and Parakrama Bahu I

Mandela has died and he was a great leader.  However, even great leaders cant solve all problems in a country. Case in point was the devastation on life expectancy in South Africa caused by the AIDS epidemic.  Mandelas response and had very little effect on Life Expectancy. In effect Life expectancy was no different from neighboring Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe who most would agree was not a great leader.

When you look at GDP//capita another story appears. During Mandelas Presidency, 1994-1999   GDP/capita stagnated between USD 3,546 and USD 3,102.  However since 2002 GDP has risen from USD 2,439 to USD 7,942 in 2011.  I am no economist to say whether this GDP/capita 200% rise over 9 years was due to inflation or because of economic policies put into place during Mandela Presidency.

If we take Sri Lankas history Parakramabahu the Great was a great leader who united the country oversaw the expansion and beautification of his capital, constructed extensive irrigation systems, reorganized the country's army, reformed Buddhist practices, encouraged the arts and undertook military campaigns in southern India and in Myanmar. The adage "not even a little water that comes from the rain must flow into the ocean without being made useful to man" is one of his most famous utterances.

However such success came at a price. Relentless warfare took its toll on the country and Parākramabāhu's reliance on Tamil mercenaries proved to be a destabilizing force after his death. Taxation was high under his reign and high-value coinage all but disappeared towards the end of his rule, a sign of increasing poverty. One of his successor Nissanka Malla's (a non Sri Lankan from Kalinga) most popular actions was reducing taxation.

The chronic instability of the years after his reign undid many of his accomplishments and developed into a crisis that the country never recovered from.

His ultimate weakness was the lack of restraint in his spending, taking Sri Lanka to greater heights that it had reached in a long time, but exhausting the island's resources in the process.

To me the take home message is that however great a countries leadership can be, the leadership can only solve some of the problems facing a country.

Read this for a negative view of Mandelas legacy
http://takimag.com/article/mandela_what_the_obits_omit_jim_goad#axzz2myfFOaIf

Saudi Arabia may have Nuclear Weapons before Iran

From BBC.

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight. While the kingdom's quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.

Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.

I wonder if these reports are being published because of the recent fall out between the US and Saudi Arabia.

Upset at President Barack Obama's policies on Iran and Syria, members of Saudi Arabia's ruling family are threatening a rift with the United States that could take the alliance between Washington and the kingdom to its lowest point in years.

Saudi Arabia's intelligence chief is vowing that the kingdom will make a 'major shift' in relations with the United States to protest perceived American inaction over Syria's civil war as well as recent U.S. overtures to Iran, a source close to Saudi policy said on Tuesday.

Prince Bandar bin Sultan told European diplomats that the United States had failed to act effectively against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was growing closer to Tehran, and had failed to back Saudi support for Bahrain when it crushed an anti-government revolt in 2011, the source said.

Excerpts from
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2472680/Saudi-Arabia-severs-diplomatic-ties-US-response-conflict-Syria.html

Amnesty International does not oppose Drone Killings.

Naureen Shah of Amnesty International explained that Amnesty International cannot oppose all drone strikes in an

illegal war, because Amnesty International has never opposed a war, because doing so would make it look biased, and A.I. wants to appear to be an unbiased enforcer of the law.

However, now the U.N. special rapporteur finds that drones are making war the norm rather than the exception.  That’s a serious shifting of the ground, and might be good reason to reconsider the ongoing feasibility of a human rights group avoiding the existence of laws against war. Shah also argued against banning weaponized drones on the grounds that they could be used legally.  That is, there could be a legal war (ignoring Kellogg-Briand) and during that legal war a drone could legally kill people in accordance with someone’s interpretation of necessity, discrimination, proportionality, intention, and so forth. 

From the comments

So it felt like a betrayal when I heard that Amnesty’s American office was headed for most of last year by Suzanne Nossel; before taking up that job she had been a deputy assistant secretary of state under Hillary Clinton. Under Nossel’s leadership, Amnesty whitewashed the invasion of Afghanistan by hosting a conference praising NATO’s
 “progress” in that country. The guest of “honor” at that event was Madeleine Albright, the secretary of state who declared that killing as many as 500,000 children in Iraq by depriving them of essential medicines was a price worth paying.

via http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/11/amnesty-intl-explains-why-it-wont-oppose-all-drone-murders.html 

Obama wears a sarong (possibly throw over from Indonesian childhood)

First thanks to Tilak Ranaweera who commented about Obama wearing a sarong and a little googling turned up a treasure trove.  The excerpts below.

When Barack Obama met Genevieve Cook in 1983 at a Christmas party in New York’s East Village, it was the start of his most serious romance yet. But as the 22-year-old Columbia grad began to shape his future, he was also struggling with his identity: American or international? Black or white? 

Genevieve Cook came from not one but several distinguished families. Her father, Michael J. Cook, was a prominent Australian diplomat. Genevieve’s mother, born Helen Ibbitson, came from a banking family in Melbourne and was an art historian. Michael and Helen divorced when Genevieve was 10. Helen soon remarried into a well-known American family, the Jessups. With homes in Georgetown and on Park Avenue at various times, Philip C. Jessup Jr. served as general counsel for the National Gallery of Art, in Washington. The Jessups were establishment Democrats. Philip’s father had been a major figure in American postwar diplomacy.

If Barack and Genevieve were in social occasions as a couple, it was almost always with the Pakistanis. Hasan Chandoo had moved back from London and taken a place in a converted warehouse on the waterfront below Brooklyn Heights. Wahid Hamid, starting a rise up the corporate ladder that would take him to the top of PepsiCo, lived on Long Island with his wife.  

Barack for the most part declined alcohol and drugs. “He was quite abstemious,” Genevieve said. She enjoyed the warmth of the gatherings, but was usually ready to go home before him. He was pushing away from the Pakistanis, too, politely, for a different reason, she thought. He wanted something more. 

There was a riff in that book (Ralph Ellison’s Invisible Man) that Mahmood thought struck close to the bone with Obama. The narrator, an intelligent black man whose skills were invisible to white society, wrote: “America is woven of many strands; I would recognize them and let it so remain. It’s ‘winner take nothing’ that is the great truth of our country or of any country. Life is to be lived, not controlled; and humanity is won by continuing to play in the face of certain defeat.” His friend Barack, Mahmood thought, “was the most deliberate person I ever met in terms of constructing his own identity, and his achievement was really an achievement of identity in the modern world. [That] was an important period for him, first the shift from not international but American, number one, and then not white, but black.” 

In Dreams from My Father, Obama chose to emphasize a racial chasm that unavoidably separated him from the woman he described as his New York girlfriend.

One night I took her to see a new play by a black playwright. It was a very angry play, but very funny. Typical black American humor. The audience was mostly black, and everybody was laughing and clapping and hollering like they were in church. After the play was over, my friend started talking about why black people were so angry all the time. I said it was a matter of remembering—nobody asks why Jews remember the Holocaust,  I think I said—and she said that’s different, and I said it wasn’t, and she said that anger was just a dead end. We had a big fight, right in front of the theater. When we got back to the car she started crying. She couldn’t be black, she said. She would if she could, but she couldn’t. She could only be herself, and wasn’t that enough.

Sri Lankan in a Sarong

In a series of diary entries from one of his lovers here in the Big Apple, a never-before-seen side of the now-guarded president is revealed — with descriptions of his “sexual warmth” and his penchant for lounging at home in a sarong. 

Obama even briefly moved into Cook’s Prospect Park, Brooklyn, apartment and they celebrated Christmas together in 1983, before the two parted ways.  

In his memoir “Dreams from My Father,” Obama provides sketchy details of his time in New York. He mentioned “there was a woman in New York that I loved” but never mentioned her name.

She talked about how Obama walked around his bedroom bare-chested, dressed in a blue and white sarong while working on a New York Times crossword puzzle.

“I open the door that Barack keeps closed to his room and enter in a warm, private space pervaded by a mixture of smells that so strongly speak of his presence, his liveliness, his habits — running sweat, Brut spray deodorant, smoking, eating raisins, sleeping, breathing,” Cook wrote.

Obama and Cook would date for a year. He was 22 and she was 25 when they met.
Cook said when she told Obama she loved him, he responded: “Thank you.”

Read the Vanity Fair article, its a lengthy description
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/06/young-barack-obama-in-love-david-maraniss

Media Censorship: Catholic Priest beheaded by Syrian "Rebels"

The Daily Mail in the UK initially reported a video of Syrian "rebels" beheading a Catholic priest.  The Vatican has confirmed the death by beheading of Franciscan Father, Francois Murad, who was martyred by Syrian jihadists on June 23.

I am not too surprised by what the "rebels" have been doing, they definitely are high up on the brutality rankings,  What I find surprising is that none of the major news papers/outlets, the BBC, NY Times, Washington Post are carrying this story.  Not even the usually sensationalist New York Post.  The only big news outlet carrying the story is the Daily Mail in the UK and the local NY Daily News. (See  Bing search on Jul 1st).

John McCain with Syrian "rebels"

Is this self censorship of the major news outlets because the the brutal act has been carried out by the self same "rebels" the US, UK and EU  are arming and supplying arms to overthrow Assad a relatively secular dictator.  The same "rebels" with whom John McCain  had cordial discussions.

So far not a comment on the beheading by the major supporters, John Kerry, John McCain, Obama, and David Cameron.

What do our Sri Lankan journalists think of this. So far not a word by the those who have issues with media censorship.

Update: The BBC has just reported the incident. However, it can only be found by a search, it is not listed on the front page for the Mid-east. Note the wording, nothing like brutal etc, is used. Compare that to a report on police brutality in Sri Lanka.

Two US bloggers banned from entering the UK

Two US blogger, Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer have been banned from entering the UK.  The  Sri Lankan aspect is that Pam Geller and her Atlas Shrugs website were at the forefront in preventing Rifqua Bary, a Sri Lankan girl in the US being re-united with her parents.  Pamela Geller paid and fueled the controversy to headlines by insisting Rifqua would be killed if she returned to her parents, i.e. honor killing.  Pamela Geller went on on to denounce honor killing was common practice in Sri Lanka.  Background on Pam Geller here.

Excerpts from BBC article

Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer co-founded anti-Muslim group Stop Islamization of America.

They were due to speak at an English Defence League march in Woolwich, where Drummer Lee Rigby was killed

The letters, (Page 1 and Page 2)  both dated Tuesday, claim that both activists have fallen within the scope of a list of unacceptable behaviours by making statements which may "foster hatred" and lead to "inter-community violence" in the UK.

Both letters gave examples of anti-Muslim views stated by both and went on to say that should they be allowed to enter the UK the home secretary believes they would "continue to espouse such views".

Sri Lanka: still difficult to ‘bell the cat’

In all a reasonable assessment of the situation in Sri Lanka by Dr Alexander (Sandy) Gordon.  Dr Gordon has a PhD from the University of Cambridge. He has worked as an academic and senior public servant. He retired from the Australian National University in 2011, where he was a professor in he College of Asia and the Pacific. He is the author of a number of books on India and the Indian Ocean region.

The Article

Sri Lanka is a small country of about the population of Australia. Its location astride the major energy sea lanes of communication (SLOCS) of the Indian Ocean and just south of behemoth India, however, puts it in a strategic box seat for the forthcoming struggle for influence over the liquid energy requirements of the East Asian economic giants, including China.

Until about a decade ago, the island was a Western-leaning democracy, but one with a generational civil war involving human rights violations on both side. The denouement of the war in May 2009 saw the death of the head of the Tamil Tigers, Vellupillai Prabhakaran. Few who were not Tamil Tiger loyalists would have mourned the passing of the homicidal head of the feared organisation. Fewer still would have regretted the ending of a civil war that had lasted since 1983 and caused an estimated 80,000 deaths.

But the war ended amidst concerns about serious human rights violations involving deaths of civilian Tamils that the Tigers had used as a ‘human shield’ against the final onslaught of the Sri Lankan army. The US and other Western powers sought a pause in the fighting, threatening to withhold a much-needed IMF loan. But President Rajapaksa was able to cock a snook at Washington because of support from China, Iran and Pakistan. China is also involved in developing a massive port at strategically-located Hambantota, on the southern tip of the island. The ability of the Rajapaksa government to withstand Western blandishments signalled an important game-change, in which the West could no longer use its financial clout for human rights objectives.

But the human rights issues won’t go away. Channel Four, which had levelled the initial charges of a civilian massacre, recently published footage that seemed to suggest that the Sri Lankan army had executed Brabharakaran’s twelve year old son. The Financial Times also reports that at least 39 media workers have been killed or disappeared over the last seven years and that Reporters without Borders places Sri Lanka 163 of 179 countries assessed in terms of press freedom.

After the war, the head of the armed forces, General Sareth Fonseka, split from Rajapaksa and fought him in presidential elections. He lost heavily to the popular President, who was riding a wave of economic and military success and who had assumed many of the levers of democratic power. Fonseka was subsequently jailed but has now been released.

Recently Sri Lanka’s Chief Justice was also removed on alleged grounds of impropriety. She had challenged an important law designed to increase the hold of the central government over the provinces and seemingly entrench military rule of the Tamil areas. The new Chief Justice, a former Attorney General, is being boycotted by the Bar Association.

More seriously for the long-term, the government has shunned any peace and reconciliation process or any move toward autonomy for the Tamil minority, arguing that the best way forward is to reintegrate the Tamil majority areas into the Island’s general pattern of strong growth and development.

President Rajapaksa is meanwhile forging ahead to turn Sri Lanka into an ‘Asian tiger’ – a model that is not only being emulated on the economic front but also on the democratic, given the emerging authoritarian overtones. After a sharp fall during the GFC, economic growth, which had typically been in the region of 6% throughout the 2000s, rose to about 8% over 2010-11 (but has fallen to 4.8% in the latest quarter of 2012).

Sri Lanka’s human rights issues and its forthright approach to the Tamils have triggered a range of reactions.

India is struggling to contain China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region and New Delhi’s predilection would be to go soft on human rights. But it is also facing a national election, and the plight of the Tamils has triggered a political response in Tamil Nadu. This has caused India to vote against Sri Lanka on the human rights at the UNHCR.

The West, while its media might continue to seek to expose abuses, can do little, for reasons stated above. Australia’s dilemma is acute. Already in receipt of Tamil boat people fleeing alleged persecution, the last thing Canberra would want is a recrudescence of the guerrilla campaign, which would see rising human rights abuses and larger numbers of asylum seekers. On the other hand, Australia needs the Sri Lankan government’s assistance to ensure that boats do not leave the Island. So here we have it: the old Asian dilemma. How is growth and stability to be set against human rights and fully functioning democratic institutions? How should an ever-weakening West (at least in comparative terms) intervene in what has become the new great game – one in which it is no longer necessarily the central player?

Sri Lanka encapsulates all these issues and provides a fascinating glimpse into an otherwise opaque future.

One of the comments

James Smith - April 7, 2013 “excruciating human rights abuses of Tamils” sounds like an exaggeration given that it has been proven by a number of international agencies that the situation in the north and east of Sri Lanka has stabilised and is peaceful. Sorry, I cannot agree with such a sweeping statement on a number of levels.
It is also the responsibility of the Tamil political parties, as much it is Sinhalese parties, to engage in meaningful dialogue and not lobby for a separate state. Australia will thankfully not endorse any movement that will endanger India’s internal stability, nor endorse a movement that aims to undermine the region’s cohesion. South Asia is not South Sudan. Its important this be understood very clearly.

From http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/southasiamasala/2013/02/23/sri-lanka-still-difficult-to-bell-the-cat

Canada: Dangerous game of "Diaspora Politics"

To quote:

Obviously not all of Canada’s foreign policy decisions are the result of diaspora politics but many of the important ones, including the likely boycott of the next Commonwealth meeting in Sri Lanka, are. As we have argued before, this “dangerous game of diaspora politics” is mostly about short-sighted, self-interested politicians. We believe Canadians need to wrestle the diaspora political agenda away from our elected officials as it is far too important to be left in their self-serving hands. (summary)

It would be enough for us to argue that there was no principled policy at play here, if being principled means abiding by and enforcing a commitment to basic standards of human rights and rule of law; and especially when violations of those rights are egregious and self-evident. One expects a government espousing “principles” as a cornerstone of its foreign policy to at least understand and apply these basic and fundamental tenets of international diplomacy through thick and thin.

But we have other concerns. As the Conservatives work assiduously to court diasporas from regions of the world deeply immersed in conflict, one must ask if these immigrants are fleeing oppression and long for freedom or are moving here because of business opportunities. With diaspora politics probably the most salient political issue of the 21st century, we are seeing the emergence of a more conservative society that fits perfectly into Harper’s Conservative agenda. If previous generations of immigrants brought in their suitcases issues such as human rights, democracy and the like, now we see a different kind of interests at play: business success perhaps at the expense of human rights, rule of law and justice.

Complete Article here: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/05/17/dangerous_game_of_diaspora_politics_is_here_to_stay.html