Update: Pandemics, Financial Crash and Gold

All these pandemic stuff is not unexpected.  Those who look at downside risk, i.e. tail risk, predicted the 2008 crash*. After that  they commented the structural issues of US economy are still weak and an pandemic will tear apart globalization.
 
So obviously we are seeing the pandemic at play.  I thought it would die down by May Jun (2021) at least for Sri Lanka. Is it going to get worse, who knows?. Two more big picture issues in play both linked.
 
a) A financial crash bigger than 2008 in the US is in play. Is it tomorrow or couple of years down the line, cant say. As they say the market can stay irrational longer than you can say solvent.

b) The price of Gold, still in play to reach 3K/oz.  Has taken a hit because of crypto currencies, and the ability to move it with ease across borders.  The moment there is something like Internet failure, or ability to audit movement goodbye to confidence in crypto currencies.  Very hard to audit gold plastered into your wall. (Remember US made it illegal to own gold and confiscated what was in bank deposit boxes).

Two paragraphs from what I wrote in May 2020

To quote from 2011 article by Matt Stoller: And while this may not be hitting the elite segments of the economy right now, there will be no escape from a flu pandemic or significant food shortage. The re-engineering of our global supply chain needs to happen—and it will happen, either through good leadership or through collapse.

The Virus War: Make no mistake, this is the real war on Terror. The enemy is invisible, insidious and within. Normally wars have some breathing space, bombs fall and then a few days of respite. This war is like water torture a continuous drip drip of sickness and death. Eventually fatigue sets in, and many become immune to the daily numbers of sickness and death. The Stalinist "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" becomes the reality, with the death of humanity.

*One of the reasons I am out here in jungles, the tail risk was too scary, plus I was getting stressed and burnt out with vacationless US work hours.


Written in May 2020
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-fault-lines-consequences-sereno-barr-kumar/