All these pandemic stuff is not unexpected. Those who look at downside risk, i.e. tail risk, predicted the 2008 crash*. After that they commented the structural issues of US economy are still weak and an pandemic will tear apart globalization.
So obviously we are seeing the pandemic at play. I thought it would die down by May Jun (2021) at least for Sri Lanka. Is it going to get worse, who knows?. Two more big picture issues in play both linked.
a) A financial crash bigger than 2008 in the US is in play. Is it tomorrow or couple of years down the line, cant say. As they say the market can stay irrational longer than you can say solvent.
b) The price of Gold, still in play to reach 3K/oz. Has taken a hit because of crypto currencies, and the ability to move it with ease across borders. The moment there is something like Internet failure, or ability to audit movement goodbye to confidence in crypto currencies. Very hard to audit gold plastered into your wall. (Remember US made it illegal to own gold and confiscated what was in bank deposit boxes).
Two paragraphs from what I wrote in May 2020
To quote from 2011 article by Matt Stoller: And while this may not be hitting the elite segments of the economy right now, there will be no escape from a flu pandemic or significant food shortage. The re-engineering of our global supply chain needs to happen—and it will happen, either through good leadership or through collapse.
The Virus War: Make no mistake, this is the real war on Terror. The enemy is invisible, insidious and within. Normally wars have some breathing space, bombs fall and then a few days of respite. This war is like water torture a continuous drip drip of sickness and death. Eventually fatigue sets in, and many become immune to the daily numbers of sickness and death. The Stalinist "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" becomes the reality, with the death of humanity.
*One of the reasons I am out here in jungles, the tail risk was too scary, plus I was getting stressed and burnt out with vacationless US work hours.
Written in May 2020
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-fault-lines-consequences-sereno-barr-kumar/
Thursday, May 13, 2021
Update: Pandemics, Financial Crash and Gold
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Dude, you sound like the Trumpians in the US who have embraced the nonsense their leader spews. You keep looking up a kangaroo's butt expecting to see a joey and come away having seen shit. Why don't you begin with cleaning up your own shit?
ReplyDeleteStart with acknowledging that you don't live on Staten Island. Admit you have no financial expertise. It seems you also have very little education, if anything at all. Just write about something more personally relevant and truthful?
Did some research on Sereno Barr. Seems he is a Sri Lankan and his relatives have a sorry reputation. Look up https://fraudalerts.nu/tag/dr-raj-barr-kumar/ and
Deletehttps://thuppahis.com/2019/12/21/the-vicious-political-fervour-promoted-by-social-media-today/, ...
Thamby,why do you keep expressing your ignorance in public? I knew your father well and I know the Barr family as well. I just don't think your drivel serves anyone well. You wrote that "One of the reasons I am out here in jungles, the tail risk was too scary, plus I was getting stressed and burnt out with vacationless US work hours." Your cousin tells me you couldn't hold a job in the US and the woman you were living with kicked you out.
ReplyDeleteBarr is simply seeking attention. He says he is back in the swamp because he "was getting stressed and burnt out with vacationless US work hours." Wait, then why is he maintaining a LinkedIn profile claiming he is living on Staten Island? He claims he is an environmentalist, a financial guru, and seems to think he is competent in medicine as well? What is wrong with this picture, babu?
ReplyDeleteLOL!! "A financial crash bigger than 2008 in the US is in play. Is it tomorrow or couple of years down the line, cant say. As they say the market can stay irrational longer than you can say solvent." There will always be financial crashes,recoveries, bubbles. It's the law of probabilities y'all. I'll predict that one day you and I will be pushing daisies. Want to bet on it?
ReplyDelete