Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Using Palmyra (තල්) as an Elephant Deterrent


Palmyra (තල්) as an Elephant Deterrent

 Mr. S. M. A. Azeez is former Deputy Director of Agriculture. He has been promoting the use of Palmyra trees as an Elephant deterrent for many years.

You can contact Mr. Azeez at 077-348-7114 for further details on how the trees should be planted etc.

Photos are of the model plantation with Palmyra as an Elephant Deterrent.



Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Liberia, Ebola, Firestone and a Rubber Farm

Liberia and Ebola is in the News. A Rubber Farm (Estate for us Sri Lankans) leased by Firestone is also in the news  as one of the few places where Ebola has been stopped from spreading.

What the articles dont mention about the Rubber Farm is that it is a million acres (4% of the land in Liberia), and in 2005 the lease was renewed for 37 years at USD 0.50 cents/acre.   I could not find out if the 0.50 was for a year, or for the 37 years.

Over here in Sri Lanka an acre of Rubber is over USD 10,000 (LKR Million).  So for the price of one acre of Rubber in Sri Lanka one can lease 540 acres for 37 years.   Talk about exploitation of Africa.

Note: Firestone is currently owned by Bridgestone which is Japanese.

Some Facts of Liberia and the Rubber Farm
  • In 1820, the American Colonization Society (ACS) establishes colony of African Americans with tradition infused with American notions of racial supremacy, and political republicanism.

  • 1847 Independent Republic of Liberia created. The leadership of the new nation consisted largely of the Americo-Liberians.

  • Supported by prominent American politicians such as Abraham Lincoln, Henry Clay, and James Monroe, believed repatriation was preferable to freeing of slaves.

  • Indigenous Africans were excluded from citizenship until 1904.

  • 1926, the Liberian government granted Firestone a 99-year lease for a million acres (to be chosen by the company wherever in Liberia) at a price of 6 cents per acre.  Thats 4% of the countrys 27,520,000 acres.

  • Firestone also provided a $5 million loan at a 7% interest rate.

  • The loan was given in exchange for complete authority over the government's revenues until the loan was paid.

  • The loan took a larger and larger portion of the Liberian government's incomes: it grew from 20% of the total revenue of Liberia in 1929, to 32% in 1930, to 54.9% in 1931 and nearly the whole revenue in 1932.

  • In 2005, the Firestone Company and the Liberian government signed a new 37-year deal raising the lease to 50 cents per acre .
http://online.wsj.com/articles/liberian-rubber-farm-becomes-sanctuary-against-ebola-1412629331
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestone_Natural_Rubber_Company

Friday, September 12, 2014

False: Illegal Land Grabs By Sri Lanka Navy Destroys Wilpattu National Park

http://goo.gl/maps/uix0UColombo Telegraph has an article claiming that the Navy has grabbed 900 acres from the Wilpattu National Park.  It is factually incorrect in so many ways.  Excerpts and the proper view.

Who writes this rubbish.

located along the Northern border of the park
Northern Border and 2 km from Eluvamkulama, Really !!.
Eluvamkulama is on the southern border.

so far for about 2 km along the Eluwankulama – Silwathura road that was also constructed by the SLN illegally.
2 km from Eluvamkulama is outside the Wilpattu Park.
It is 4 km from Eluvamkulama to the Park boundary at Kala-Oya causeway boundary
The Eluwankulama – Silwathurai road is historical.  It was a cart track in the the Early 1900's before the Wilpattu National Park was created.  The road connected the populations of Mannar and Puttalam.  The road is still called the Old Mannar Puttalam road.

50 more acres of land in the national park have been impacted due to being cleared to obtain soil to build the massive nine inch rampart that is being built around the 900 acre land.
Dont know about the 50 acres,  The 900 acres is south of the Wilpattu Border.  Its an old tank (Achchimale tank)  that is being reconstructed to build the Puttalam Water supply being fed by the Kala-Oya.  See progress report in 2011

At the moment (Sept 2014) the earth being excavated is supplied to whoever is willing to pay LKR 300 for a tipper truck load.  Many in the surrounding village are using the earth to fill in low lying property.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Sustainability of Increasingly Complex Societies


A must read article along the lines of Joseph Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies.  Examines the
viability and sustainability of increasing complex societies.  Is “doing more with less”, i.e. is ever increasing productivity sustainable.

One should also think of increasingly complex Finance and Financial Instruments, and increased instability of finance and economies (kind of touched here) when reading the article.  Its all connected.

Excerpts from the Archdruid Report
recent chatter about “cloud computing.” What is this thing we’re calling “the cloud?” Descend from the airy realms of cyber-abstractions into the grubby underworld of hardware, and it’s an archipelago of huge server farms, each of which uses as much electricity as a small city, each of which has a ravenous hunger for spare parts, skilled labor, and many other inputs, and each of which must be connected to all the others by a physical network of linkages that have their own inescapable resource demands. As with Fuller’s satellite analogy, the ephemeralization of one part of the whole system is accomplished at the cost of massive capital outlays and drastic increases in complexity elsewhere in the system.

The basis of that theory is the uncontroversial fact that human societies routinely build more infrastructure than they can afford to maintain. During periods of prosperity, societies invest available resources in major projects—temples, fortifications, canal or road systems, space programs, or whatever else happens to appeal to the collective imagination of the age. As infrastructure increases in scale and complexity, the costs of maintenance rise to equal and exceed the available economic surplus; the period of prosperity ends in political and economic failure, and infrastructure falls into ruin as its maintenance costs are no longer paid.

The pulse of anabolic expansion and catabolic collapse thus defines, for example, the history of imperial China. The extraordinary stability of China’s traditional system of village agriculture and local-scale manufacturing put a floor under the process, so that each collapse bottomed out at roughly the same level as the last, and after a century or two another anabolic pulse would get under way. In some places along the Great Wall, it’s possible to see the high-water marks of each anabolic phase practically side by side, as each successful dynasty’s repairs and improvements were added onto the original fabric. rably more troublesome if the resource base lacks the permanence of traditional Chinese rice fields and workshops. A society that bases its economy on nonrenewable resources, in particular, has set itself up for a far more devastating collapse.

Buckminister Fuller had a well-earned reputation in the engineering field of his time as “failure-prone,” and a consistent habit of pursuing efficiency at the expense of resilience was arguably the most important reason why. The fiasco surrounding Fuller’s 1933 Dymaxion car is a case in point. One of the car’s many novel features was a center of mass that was extremely high compared to other cars, which combined with an innovative suspension system to give the car an extremely smooth ride. Unfortunately this same feature turned into a lethal liability when a Dymaxion prototype was sideswiped by another vehicle.

The unavoidable tradeoff between efficiency and resilience can be understood easily enough by considering an ordinary bridge.

A society dependent on vulnerable satellite networks in place of the robust reliability of oceanic cables, cloud computing in place of the dispersed security of programs and data spread across millions of separate hard drives, just-in-time ordering in place of warehouses ready to fill in any disruptions in the supply chain, and so on, is indeed more ephemeral—that is to say, considerably more fragile than it would otherwise be.






Another Economic Crash: Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan says another economic crash is probably in the
books.  Dont dismiss him as just the RB India Governor.  Raghuram Rajan is also a Professor of Finance at University of Chicago and one time chief Economist at IMF.

I personally keep track of Raghuram Rajan and Satyajit Das, both great names in the Finance world but also critical of current Financial Instruments.   Raghuram Rajan had paper out in 2005 "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? which I came across in a Salon article in 2006 (see below). 

Based on Raghuram Rajan's article and what I knew working in (Fixed Income) Bonds and Derivatives (till 2009) had a  discussion with a Grad school Colleague also in Derivatives (he worked for a Hedge fund) in 2006. I kept on betting against the trend and made some money with PUT options in late 2007 collapse. I used only money I could afford to loose, so made a little money, 1:10 returns or more.)
Date: Fri, Apr 28, 2006 at 5:29 PM
Subject: Re: Credit Derivatives: Wall Street bets on a housing bubble

http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2006/04/18/credit_swaps/index.html
Wall Street bets on a housing bubble
I think could be optimistic if things are given time to play out. Maybe the time is to equilibrium is a little faster now, than in the past simply because of the "global village" thing.
However, the pessimist in me wonders if two  or three of the pivots of instability give way at the same time.
e.g. In no particular order (Italics: Current additions to explain to non-technical)
  1. ARM's ((Adustable Rate Mortgages) start to collapse (default)
  2. The Lehman defaults kicked in defaults, then mortgages (MBS) and Credit Derivatives defaulted. If the US govt had not stepped in and backstopped the Banks, complete collapse. Anyway that was the end of Investments Bank. The thinking at that time a couple would fail; instead all failed.
  3. Iran requires payment in Euros
  4. China starts pull out of the Treasury Market
  5. Some nut creates a virus that just freezes the net for a few weeks (that would give a run on the banks.)
To me whats scary is that the whole world is so tied together that
instead of it becoming stabler, its created more points of instability not
just for the US but for the world.
I guess the converse also holds in that as everyone is tied together
that there is a vested interest to keep things as stable as possible.
Anyway, the underlying issues of the 2007-2008 Financial Collapse have not gone away. The huge debt loads, by Govts (e.g US: $12.6 Trillion 104% of GDP see post on GDP calculations) and personal debt (US $99,000 103% of Disposable Income) have not decreased.  This can only happen by write off (debt forgiveness) and restarting the clock.  It cannot be decreased by earnings  taxes or austerity, the debts are too large. (see US cant tax its way out of deficits).

Note: Actual liabilities of the US Govt, when Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits are included is $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP.

The debt in turn is the basis of many Financial Instrument, from simple Bonds to complex Mortgage Backed Securities and CDO's.   These Instruments in turn are the basis of the Asset side Investments of many balance sheets. So when defaults occur it cascades into loss of value in instruments which in turn trigger balance sheet funding requirements.

Triggers can also be political/social turmoil.  Think Ukraine. Ebola or Iraq.

So something has to give, its not a question of IF but WHEN.   If you knew when, you would be a $ millionaire with a small investment against the trend. 

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

US involvement with Ebola Virus

Some interesting facts on US involvement with the Ebola Virus.  Also read this on Ebola.
#20 Researchers from Tulane University have been active for several years in the very same areas where this Ebola outbreak began.  One of the stated purposes of this research was to study "the future use of fever-viruses as bioweapons".

#21 According to the Ministry of Health and Sanitation in Sierra Leone, researchers from Tulane University have been asked "to stop Ebola testing during the current Ebola outbreak".  What in the world does that mean?

#22 The Navy Times says that the U.S. military has been interested in studying Ebola "as a potential biological weapon" since the 1970s...
Filoviruses like Ebola have been of interest to the Pentagon since the late 1970s, mainly because Ebola and its fellow viruses have high mortality rates — in the current outbreak, roughly 60 percent to 72 percent of those who have contracted the disease have died — and its stable nature in aerosol make it attractive as a potential biological weapon.
#23 The CDC actually owns a patent on one particular strain of the Ebola virus...
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control owns a patent on a particular strain of Ebola known as "EboBun." It's patent No. CA2741523A1 and it was awarded in 2010. You can view it here.
It is being reported that this is not the same strain that is currently being transmitted in Africa, but it is interesting to note nonetheless.  And why would the CDC want "ownership" of a strain of the Ebola virus in the first place?

#24 The CDC has just put up a brand new webpage entitled "Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Hospitalized Patients with Known or Suspected Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever in U.S. Hospitals".

#11 A study conducted in 2012 proved that Ebola could be transmitted between pigs and monkeys that were in separate cages and that never made physical contact.

#12 This is a new strain of Ebola, so what we know about other strains of Ebola may not necessarily apply to this strain of Ebola.

via http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-04/25-critical-facts-about-ebola-outbreak-every-american-needs-know

also see
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-05/us-government-caught-using-humanitarian-hiv-program-front-foster-cuban-dissent

Monday, August 4, 2014

US may have totured in UK owned Diego Garcia

Looks like the Americans may have been doing some torturing in UK owned Diego Garcia.

Excerpts from the Telegraph
The government stands accused of seeking to conceal Britain's role in extraordinary rendition, ahead of the release of a declassified intelligence report that exposes the use of torture at US secret prisons around the world.

.. will confirm that the US tortured terrorist suspects after 9/11. In advance of the release, Barack Obama admitted on Friday: "We tortured some folks. We did some things that were contrary to our values."

"The government protested America would be angered if this kidnap case ever went to trial – and now we learn the British government is leaning on the Americans not to air Britain's dirty laundry. It exposes their litigation stance as mere posturing," she added.
Confirmation that a British territory was involved in extraordinary rendition could leave the government vulnerable to legal action. Last month the European court of human rights ruled that the Polish government actively assisted the CIA's European "black site" programme, which saw detainees interrogated in secret prisons across the continent.