Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Trump, Iran, Gold and Financial Crash

A couple of FB post in one place predicting if there is a war with Iran

a) Gold will sky rocket USD 1,700/oz and above is a high probability (USD 1,400 on June 20)
b) Will Trigger a Financial Crash bigger than the 2008 because
  • Possibility of  Oil pushing USD 100- USD 150
    That will trigger trillions in derivatives and the dominoes fall
Gold Price as of June 25 2019 (usd/oz price is on right axis)
c) Saudi Arabia will fall apart, like Libya. Recall what happened to Kuwait.  Luckily Bush senior saved absorption of Kuwait into Iraq.

Probability  of war is high. On the negative side Trump would prefer war after 2020 Election.  However, he is out weighed by War Hawks, Bolton, Pompeo, Kushner, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Gold Prediction (June 20)
A little late, but low downside risk and high upside to buying gold.
Upside of Gold at USD1,700/oz and above is reasonable upside in my opinion.

I* have been saying since 2009 there will be another Financial crash and to buy gold. 10 years later it has not happened. The Central banks and the US Fed have managed to keep on kicking the can down the road.
It is a good possibility the Central Banks have reached the end of the road. The potential of war with Iran and US-China trade conflict maybe the big nail on the coffin for an financial crash.
Iran has said if sanctions wont allow Iran to export oil, no one will get oil from the mid-east. i.e. they will shut down the Straits of Hormuz. I dont think Iran is bluffing.
For war to be avoided, Trump will have to provide concessions to Iran. Concessions like permitting Iran to export oil to China and India . Maybe it can be done in a face saving way for the US, without appearing to look weak.

* Not really, I. More like Satyajit Das and Raghuram Rajan (both who predicted the 2008 crash early as 2005). For me that why I read ZeroHedge.

An analysis on Iran and US sanctions (21st June)
Trump may well want some diplomatic exchange with Iran. But Iran will not talk to him as long as the sanctions against it are kept in place. It will continue its maximum pressure campaign by creating new incidents that will again increase the price of oil. The easiest way out for Trump is to abolish sanctions against Iran. He at least should issue waivers for China and others to allow them to again buy Iranian oil.

Unless he does so Iran will hit again and again against those who press for war against it. Yesterday it was a U.S. drone and a Saudi desalination plant that were the targets. The next incident could be in some oil facility in the United Arab Emirates or a symbolic strike against Israel.
The ball is still in Trump's court. He has to act further to avoid a larger war.

Sanctions need to End for probability of War to become Less (June 24)

Trump: “I have some hawks. John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him he'd take on the whole world at one time.“
Trump: I was against going into Iraq... I was against going into the Middle East. Chuck we've spent 7 trillion dollars in the Middle East right now

So will Trump avoid a war with weapons with Iran. Unhappily Trump does not realize crippling starvation sanctions are war by another means. Unlike Venezuela, Iran has a Trump card, shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
Just the direct statement from Iran saying it will bomb/attack any tankers passing thru the Straits will shut it down. It gets shut down because Insurance companies will refuse to insure vessels going thru the straits.

Repeat, Trump needs to end sanctions against Iran. At the least allow the sale of oil to some countries like China. Otherwise war with Iran is still in play

No comments:

Post a Comment